Long–period trends in water temperature changes in the northern part of the Atlantic Ocean from ocean reanalysis data

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Abstract

The results of assessing long–period changes in water temperature in the North Atlantic Ocean (0°–70° N, 8°–80° W) based on data from ocean reanalyses and objective analyses for the periods 1961– 2011 and 1980–2011 are presented. The obtained estimates are based on the application of a nonparametric method of regression analysis (quantile regression) to the monthly ocean temperature for a quantile value of 0.5. During the period 1961–2011 warming was mainly observed in the upper 400 m layer in the region from the equator to 70° N. Over this 51-year period, the increase in the median monthly ocean temperature averaged over the analyzed water area ~0.5°C, and in the Gulf Stream–North Atlantic Current system ~1°C. During the period 1980–2011 warming in the North Atlantic Ocean mainly occurred in the upper 1 km layer at high latitudes (50°–65° N). Over this 32-year period, the increase in the median monthly ocean temperature in the subpolar gyre in the upper 400 m layer was ~1°C.

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About the authors

P. A. Sukhonos

Institute of Natural and Technical Systems

Author for correspondence.
Email: pasukhonis@mail.ru
Russian Federation, Sevastopol

V. V. Ivanov

Lomonosov Moscow State University

Email: pasukhonis@mail.ru
Russian Federation, Moscow

N. A. Diansky

Lomonosov Moscow State University; Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics; Zubov State Oceanographic Institute

Email: pasukhonis@mail.ru
Russian Federation, Moscow; Moscow; Moscow

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2. Fig. 1. Coefficients of the median trend in water temperature in the North Atlantic Ocean (°C/10 years) for the period 1961-2011, averaged in the 10-400 m layer.

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3. Fig. 2. Coefficients of the median trend in water temperature in the North Atlantic Ocean (°C/10 years) for the period 1980-2011, averaged in the 10-400 m layer.

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