MATHEMATICAL STUDY OF SOME ASPECTS OF MIGRATION
Rubrics: ARTICLES
Abstract and keywords
Abstract (English):
This scientific paper is devoted to the mathematical study of certain aspects of population migration. The study of migration is very important in the conditions of an ageing population. The rate of migration depends on the difference between living standards and wages in the place of residence and the place of migration. The success of migration is determined by deliberate choice and certain personal connections or ethnic expat communities in the area of migration. Certain attention is paid to the issue of interregional migration in Russia. The authors use the methods of quantitative data analysis and investigate the relationship between socio-economic indicators of calculations performed using official data from the website of the Russian Federal Statistics Service. Methods of correlation and regression analysis were at work. Scientific and practical significance of the results is determined by the ability to control the natural processes of interregional migration. The authors reviewed and identified the relationship between the number of migrants and the most important socio-economic indicators of the regions attractive for migrants. Migrants prefer Moscow, St. Petersburg, Russia, Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous District of Yugra. Many migrants worked in construction of sports and other facilities in Sochi during the preparation for the Winter Olympic Games 2014. Growth of income is a positive aspect of migration. Negative aspects are the need to purchase or rent housing, settlement expenses, increased food and transport expenses, costs of communication (keeping contact with relatives and friends in another region). Such issues as “efficient” migration, justification of migration for certain categories of migrants, migration risks require a separate research. The article also considers the relationships between economic activity and the rate of migration growth for attractive from the point of view of migration regions. Moscow region is the most attractive region for migration in Russia. It has a maximum coefficient of migration growth per 10 000 populations. There is quite a close significant linear direct correlation between the level of economic activity and the rate of migration growth. Migrants in Russia tend to move to the regions with relatively high level of economic activity and high income level per capita. The choices of migrants are influenced by climate, the demand for labor force in the region, future prospects for further living. The research results include mathematical understanding of regularities between the individual socio-economic indicators of migration and analysis of the obtained regularities. The authors establish a fairly close significant (α=0.0083) line direct correlation between the migration growth coefficient and level of economic activity. The paper also examines the impact of migration growth coefficient on the average age of the employed population in the regions attractive for migration. The rejuvenating effect of migration is not revealed, which can be explained by the fact that prosperous regions offer jobs for both young and elderly people, and therefore migration makes no significant impact on the average age of the employed. Based on these data, it can be argued that the increase of migration leads to a decline of average monthly wage. Migrants prefer regions with low unemployment rates and high population density.

Keywords:
migraciya, polozhitel'nye i otricatel'nye aspekty migracii, korrelyaciya
References

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