In conditions of increasing life expectancy, declining fertility, increased migration and other demographic changes, the Foresight method can help families and society prepare for new challenges and opportunities. For example, anticipating an increase in the number of elderly people may prompt the state to develop a support program for this category of the population, and forecasting an increase in migration may contribute to the development of integration programs for new immigrants. The Foresight method is relevant in the context of demographic changes, as it allows you to predict possible scenarios for the future development of the family and society based on the analysis of current data and trends. This will make it possible to make more informed decisions and develop new tools for the state to improve the demographic situation in the country. The Foresight method is also of great relevance in education, especially in the context of technological innovations. Thus, the purpose of the article is to study the demographic situation of the Russian Federation by the Foresight method in sociology classes. The authors believe that the interest in the Foresight method lies in the fact that it allows the students of the Faculty of Economics and Management of VSTU to develope strategic thinking and planning skills, to apply those in the field of demography as well as in their future professional activity. The article presents the results of a survey of first-year students of Volgograd State Technical University (VSTU) in relation to the demographic situation in the country. The positive and negative factors affecting the demographic situation are considered. Some measures to improve the demography of the Russian Federation are proposed. The proposed Foresight method in the educational process may be of interest to teachers and methodologists of higher education engaged in the development of new approaches to training students.
Forsayt, prognozirovanie, student, sociologiya, demografiya
1. Abramenko E.V., Fedotova L.A. Professional'naya socializaciya studentov pri izuchenii gumanitarnyh disciplin v tehnicheskom vuze // PrimoAspectu. 2021. № 4(48). S. 60-65. https://doi.org/10.35211/2500-2635-2021-4-48-60-65. EDN YGFQES
2. Abramenko E.V., Abramenko S.A. Psihologicheskie vygody igropraktiki v usloviyah vysshey shkoly: ot stressa k schast'yu // Perspektivy nauki i obrazovaniya. 2024. № 2 (68). S. 470-487. https://doi.org/10.32744/pse.2024.2.29
3. Abramenko E.V. Formirovanie kommunikativnoy kompetentnosti studentov tehnicheskogo vuza // Vestnik Nizhnevartovskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. 2019. № 4. S. 22-27. https://doi.org/10.36906/2311-4444/19-4/04. EDN ANCRUH
4. Antonova N.L. Demografiya. Ekaterinburg: Izd-vo Ural. un-ta, 2014. 154 s.
5. Afonichkin A.I. Forsayt-tehnologii marketinga kak instrument formirovaniya klientoorientirovannoy nelineynoy ekonomiki // Izvestiya Sankt-Peterburgskogo gosudarstvennogo ekonomicheskogo universiteta. 2017. № 1, ch. 2. S. 168-172.
6. Bratkova V.V., Kochesokov A.K., Kochesokova M.K. Analiz demograficheskoy situacii v sovremennoy Rossii // Vestnik ekspertnogo soveta. 2021. № 1(24). https://clck.ru/3DD8Hg
7. Goncharova N.P. Demograficheskaya dinamika i ocenka rezul'tativnosti demograficheskoy politiki v regionah Rossii // Gosudarstvennyy sovetnik. 2019. № 3 (27). S. 101-108.
8. Grabel'nyh P.I. Vliyanie social'nyh vyplat na demografiyu, obrazovannost', blagosostoyanie, kul'turu i ekonomiku strany // Simvol nauki: mezhdunarodnyy nauchnyy zhurnal. 2023. № 10-1. S. 137-139. EDN MXJVXM
9. Erohina E.V., Dushkina E.S. Problematika polucheniya informacii i sostavleniya prognoza v processe forsayt // StudNet. 2022. № 6. https://clck.ru/3DD8Ld
10. Koncepcii dolgosrochnogo prognoza nauchno-tehnologicheskogo razvitiya Rossiyskoy Federacii na period do 2025 goda. M., 2006.
11. Medvedkova A.I. Demograficheskaya problema v Rossii // Nauchnye vyskazyvaniya. 2023. № 9(33). S. 87-89. https://clck.ru/3DD8PC
12. Poznyak A.V., Egorova Yu.N., Baranova A.V., Ispol'zovanie forsayt-tehnologii v processe profil'nogo obucheniya pedagogicheskoy napravlennosti // Adukacyyavyhavanne. 2018. № 6. S. 35-41.
13. Pochekutova E.N., Naumenko N.S. Napravleniya povysheniya effektivnosti realizacii nacional'nogo proekta «Demografiya» // Peterburgskiy ekonomicheskiy zhurnal. 2020. № 2. S. 23-29. https://doi.org/10.24411/2307-5368-2020-10003. EDN ECULFT
14. Rahimov O.D., Otakulov U.H., Rahimova D.O. Obrazovatel'nyy forsayt kachestva i rezul'tativnosti samostoyatel'nogo obrazovaniya // Vestnik nauki i obrazovaniya. 2021. № 7-1(110). S. 69-72. https://doi.org/10.24411/2312-8089-2021-10704. EDNRPJYZK
15. Rudakova E.K. Mnogofaktornyy analiz vnutrennih demograficheskih ugroz Rossii // Vlast'. 2020. № 6. https://clck.ru/3DD8WE
16. Ryazancev S.V., Arhangel'skiy V.N., Vorob'eva O.D. [i dr.]. Demograficheskoe razvitie Rossii: tendencii, prognozy, mery. Nacional'nyy demograficheskiy doklad – 2020. M.: Ob'edinennaya redakciya, 2020. 156 s.
17. Sokolov A.V. Forsayt: vzglyad v buduschee // Forsayt. 2007. № 1. https://clck.ru/3DD8cs
18. Tkachenko A.A. Ekonomika i demografiya social'nogo gosudarstva // Vlast'. 2021. T. 29. № 6. S. 9-19. https://doi.org/10.31171/vlast.v29i6.8671. EDN OFOXQR
19. Chernyavskaya E.I., Solov'eva D.V. Ispol'zovanie metodov forsayt-marketinga pri razrabotke brend-strategii // Ekonomika. Pravo. Innovacii. 2023. № 2. S. 65-72. http://dx.doi.org/10.17586/2713-1874-2023-2-65-72
20. Shavlyuga O.A. Forsayt v marketinge: ponyatie i primenenie // Ustoychivoe razvitie ekonomiki: sostoyanie, problemy, perspektivy. Sbornik trudov XI Mezhdunarodnoy nauchno-prakticheskoy konferencii. 2017. S. 237-238.
